Variation in detainee risk assessment within police custody across England and Wales

Every time a person is booked into police custody in England and Wales, they are assessed for risk of harm to themselves or others. National guidance is provided on what questions should be asked as part of this process; however, each year there are still instances of serious adverse incidents, self-harm and deaths in custody. The purpose of this study is to look at the extent to which the national guidance is being followed and the extent to which the risk assessment process varies between police forces. A Freedom of Information request was sent to all 43 police forces in England and Wales asking for information on their risk assessment process. This data was then analysed alongside findings from police custody inspection visits conducted by Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary. This study provides evidence that the risk assessment process is not consistent across police forces in England and Wales. Not only does the process vary from the national guidance, the content and delivery differs considerably between police forces. The findings highlight a practical problem for police forces in ensuring that risk assessment processes are conducted to a consistent standard and reflect national guidance. The study is, to the authors’ knowledge, the first time that this data has been collated and compare

Investigating the decision-making approach to risk assessment in police custody

When a person is booked into police custody in England and Wales they are assessed for risk of harm to themselves or to others. This risk assessment informs the decision as to what observation level they are placed on, ranging from hourly visits to constant observation for the highest risk detainees. In comparison to the international standard for risk management, there are gaps in the risk assessment process in police custody. Currently, the analysis and evaluation of identified risk is down to the experience and judgement of the Custody Officer, rather than a more structured method. This paper questions whether the process should be more formalized, using a statistical tool rather than relying on expert judgement. This paper uses a mixed methods approach investigating custody record data from three English police forces to identify key risk factors that lead to variances in observation levels, and interviewing sixteen Custody Officers from a further two forces investigating their perspective of the risk assessment process The findings suggest that whilst there are key factors affecting observation level, an entirely statistically based risk assessment process would lack the flexibility to account for the individual and would need to include additional information custody officers consider. It is concluded that further investigation should be conducted into a process which combines an actuarial approach with the intuitive insights gained from expert decision-making

Influencing operational policing strategy by predictive service analytics

Everyday there are growing pressures to ensure that services are delivered efficiently, with high levels of quality and with acceptability of regulatory standards. For the Police Force, their service requirement is to the public, with the police officer presence being the most visible product of this criminal justice provision. Using historical data from over 10 years of operation, this research demonstrates the benefits of using data mining methods for knowledge discovery in regards to the crime and incident related elements which impact on the Police Force service provision. In the UK, a Force operates over a designated region (macro-level), which is further subdivided into Beats (micro-level). This research also demonstrates differences between the outputs of micro-level and macro-level analytics, where the lower level analysis enables adaptation of the operational Policing strategy. The evidence base provided through the analysis supports decisions regarding further investigations into the capability of flexible neighbourhood policing practices; alongside wider operations i.e. optimal officer training times

Enhancing risk assessment in police custody using a mixed methods approach

Each year 100,000’s of people are booked into police custody, where they can be detained without charge for up to 24 hours. Whilst in custody, the police have a duty of care and statutory obligation to ensure their safe detention. To aid them in this, national guidance provides a set of core questions around health and wellbeing that the Custody Officer should ask the detainee as part of the booking-in process, as well as recording their own observations. Part of then managing the identified risk is to place the detainee on a particular observation level which relates to how often the detainee is visited in cell. Although some research has been conducted into whether this assessment identifies risk effectively, there has been little research into how Custody Officers then analyse and evaluate the identified risk in order to apply the most appropriate observation level. Using a mixed methods approach, this thesis investigates this initial risk assessment of detainees to better understand the Custody Officer’s decision-making process. Three studies have been conducted to examine the robustness of the current process and enhance understanding around influences and significant factors that affect the analysis and evaluation of risk. The first study examines the risk assessment process as set out in national guidance, investigating the extent to which the content varies between police forces. Information from each force was collated and combined with police custody inspection reports, produced from visits conducted by HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, to provide an overview of the process. The findings from this study demonstrate that the risk assessment of detainees is not consistent across police forces in England and Wales. Not only does the content differ from the national guidance, but the content and delivery differ considerably between police forces. This highlights a practical problem for police forces in ensuring that this risk assessment process is conducted to a consistent standard and ensuring the robustness of decision-making. The research then focuses on how risk is assessed and evaluated at two police forces within England using a novel approach to the research of policing practices by incorporating quantitative and qualitative research methods. In Study 2, custody record data has been statistically modelled to identify the risk factors that have the greatest influence on observation level using logistic regression, decision trees and discriminant analysis. This robust approach enables the results from these multivariate methods to be compared to determine if a core set of influencing variables can be identified. The findings from this analysis suggests that, quantitatively, there are key driving variables that Custody Officers consider in PAGE ii their decision-making around risk and observation level such as self-harm, alcohol use/intoxication, physical injuries, the demeanour and compliance of the detainee and if the detainee needs to see a healthcare practitioner. However, these variables did not account for all the variation in observation level. This study also provided new and previously untested knowledge to suggest that known risks related to deaths in custody are significant in the decision-making process around observation level. A qualitative approach was used in Study 3 with observations of the process and interviews with Custody Officers conducted to identify influencing factors on their judgment and decision-making that could not be identified quantitively. Thematic analysis was used to analyse and group the information which identified a number of previously unrecorded factors and influences. These ranged from the busyness of the suite and staffing capacity to the Custody Officer’s risk appetite and gut instinct. These factors were considered against a risk assessment framework providing novel insight as to how they influence the identification, analysis and evaluation of risk and provide an in-depth understanding of how Custody Officer’s risk assess detainees and the influences on their subjective decision-making. The findings from these three studies have then been triangulated to provide an enhanced understanding of the process and a greater knowledge of the subjectivity that is involved in the risk assessment of detainees. The thesis found that although there are key risk factors which are taken into consideration, the lack of decision-making framework specific to assessing risk of harm to detainees leads to subjective decision-making based on a number of non-tangible factors, especially gut instinct. Using a potential model of a fast and frugal tree, a number of recommendations are provided to explore further how a decision-making framework can be developed that would incorporate the most significant risk factors as well as the judgement of the Custody Officer

Enhanced understanding of risk assessment in police custody in England and Wales using statistical modelling

The issue investigated in this paper is the risk assessment of detainees whilst they are booked into police custody in England and Wales. It is estimated that hundreds of thousands of people pass through police custody each year, with each detainee undergoing a risk assessment to establish risk of harm to themselves or to others. However, there has been little research to establish which risk factors identified through the current risk assessment process used within England and Wales have the most impact on risk management. Currently the analysis and evaluation of risk is subjective, based on the custody officer’s judgement and experience. Little is known through literature as to which factors are most influential in this risk assessment process. This paper highlights these gaps in the process and identifies the driving factors in decision making around detainee risk in an attempt to understand the risk management process better before detailing what further research can be conducted to close the gap in the process. Multivariate analysis was carried out on a data-set comprising of custody record data from three police forces, in particular information recorded as part of the risk assessment. Logistic regression, decision tree and discriminant analysis methods were used as all have the ability to classify and predict. Comprehensive analysis and augmentation of results has determined a set of variables which had an influencing impact on observation level. These results provide the background to the development of a supportive and robust risk assessment tool

Domestic Homicide Project Spotlight Briefing #4: Carers

The Domestic Homicide Project (the Project), based in the Vulnerability Knowledge and Practice Programme (VKPP), was established by National Police Chiefs’ Council and the College of Policing. The Project was created in May 2020 through Home Office funding to collect, review, and share quick-time learning from all police-recorded domestic homicides and suspected suicides of individuals with a known history of domestic abuse victimisation. All police forces in England and Wales submit notice of relevant deaths to the Project shortly after the death occurs. The research is the first police-led work of its kind systematically collecting and analysing domestic homicides and suspected victim suicides following domestic abuse across England and Wales, aiming to learn lessons from every tragic death to seek to prevent future deaths. More detail, including key findings and recommendations, can be found in our first report, ‘Domestic Homicides and Suspected Victim Suicides During the Covid-19 Pandemic 2020-2021’ and our forthcoming second year report (both available via www.vkpp.org.uk ). This briefing examines the role of the carer in more depth. It considers both where the victim was carer to the suspect and where the suspect was carer to the victim. For the purpose of this briefing, a carer has been defined as: anyone who is living with (or specifically mentioned as caring for) a victim/suspect with a disability or severe or longterm illness, whether physical or mental/neurological. This has been established from contextual information provided by the police forces and therefore is dependent on the information provided and the judgement of the Project Team. The subset of data includes domestic homicides and suspected victim suicides following domestic abuse where the victim and suspect are aged 16 and over. This briefing addresses an evidence gap identified by Bracewell et al. (2022) on domestic homicides involving carers